观点Perspective ||中美贸易战中的赴美留学 Studying in the USA

　　中美贸易战中的 赴美留学 Sino-US Trade War’s Impact on Studying in the USA

       2019年6月20日

　　为了更好地增强家校沟通，使家长能够帮助学校更好地成长，同时也为了提高家长和孩子的沟通能力，增进亲子关系，上海宏润博源学校校方和家校联合会计划开展家长沙龙。本学年于6月6日和6月20日下午试运行两次，下学年开始每月月末一次。

　　本学年的两次沙龙都由我校外方校长 Christopher Moses 主讲，第一次的主题是“规划指导”(什么是规划指导，我们是怎么做的);第二次的主题是“中美贸易战中的赴美留学”。Chris校长对美国政治体系及其历史发展有深刻认识，一起来看一下专业的美国人士如何看待特朗普发起的贸易战以及这种形势下的赴美留学。

　　Good afternoon, parents.

　　各位家长下午好，

　　Today I’ve been asked to share some thoughts about the current situation involving US-China relations. I’m certainly not an expert, but I hope I can offer some perspectives and context that can help better frame the issue. I know that things may seem uncertain, which is all the more reason to reassure ourselves with clarity about what we do know.

　　今天我想谈谈中美关系的现状。虽然我不是这方面的专家，但是我希望我今天提供的观点和背景信息可以帮助大家更好地理解这个问题。虽然现在局势还不明朗，存在一些不确定性，但是我们更应该用我们知道的，已经确定的东西来安定我们的心神。

　　I will divide my comments into two parts:

　　今天我主要讲两部分内容。

　　the first will offer some context as to the US political environment, and considerations that make lead the current administration to step back from its current approach and become more open to constructive negotiation.

　　第一部分，我想讲一下有关美国政治环境的大背景以及一些会迫使美国执政当局放弃现在的对抗性策略，采取更加开放的有建设性的谈判策略的考量因素。

　　Second, I want to speak more specifically to issues related to education.

　　第二部分，我想专门谈一下中美贸易战对赴美留学的影响。

　　First, then: I’m far from alone in considering the Trump administration to be anomalous in the recent history of the United States. Regardless of what one thinks of the man as a person, and I will refrain from offering my own views (since my grandmother told me, if you don’t have anything nice to say, you shouldn’t say anything at all) – the actual policies of his administration challenge basic and longstanding approaches of his Republican party (and the larger corporations and wealthier individuals it tends to represent).

　　首先，很多美国人都跟我一样，认为特朗普政府的出现是美国近代历史上的异常事件。不管大家怎么评价特朗普这个人，我在这儿就不对他这个人作出评价了(因为我祖母跟我说过，如果你没有什么好听的话说，就什么都别说了)。特朗普政府现在推行的政策挑战了他所属的共和党以及共和党所代表的大企业和大财团一直以来秉承的基本策略。

　　Indeed, for generations that party has been guided by an ideology of free trade and limited government intervention in the market.

　　实际上，共和党一直以来奉行的理念是支持自由贸易，限制政府干预市场。

　　This means that while there is a broad recognition amongst political leaders that the US-China relationship must continue to evolve, there is far from unified support about Trump’s policies or his approach – using tariffs and supposedly security-based justifications to limit certain sectors of trade.

　　这也意味着许多美国领导人都认为中美关系应当持续发展，而不是一边倒地支持特朗普的政策和策略，即利用关税或以国家安全为由限制一些领域的贸易。

　　Even more difficult for Trump, the same bravado that he has used with China has also been directed toward some of the closest and longest-standing allies of the US: threats to Japan and the EU about car production, battles with Canada and Mexico over NAFTA, and comments that challenge aspects of Great Britain’s own trade practices (to name just a few). Just last week, Trump’s further threats to use tariffs against Mexico in response to immigration across the US’s southern border led to a broad and open rebuke from Republicans in Congress – who are very sensitive to corporation’s frustrations with Trump’s policies. They forced his hand, causing him quickly to announce a “great deal” and save face.

　　特朗普的处境比较艰难，他不但在处理中美关系时虚张声势和冒进，在对待美国长期以来的盟友国时亦是如此，比如：在汽车制造方面威胁日本和欧盟，在北美自由贸易协定上与加拿大和墨西哥产生争执，发出挑战英国国家贸易政策的评论等。上周，在对待墨西哥移民从美国南部边境进入美国的问题上，特朗普用进一步提高关税威胁墨西哥，这一举措在国会上遭到共和党人广泛公开的反对。共和党及其所代表的企业和利益集团对特朗普政府让人失望的政策非常敏感。他们给特朗普施加压力，导致他匆匆宣布达成了"不错的交易“，为挽回颜面，草草收场。

　　So, there is tension in Trump’s relationship with his own party, and also with international allies – which means that actually trying to manage the trade war he has provoked becomes much harder, as he is acting in isolation and with uncertain support. Further, he is hampered by the fact that he has proposed only a very vague endgame regards his actions, citing the trade deficit and amorphous concerns about “fairness.”

　　由此也不难看出，特朗普与其所属的共和党以及国际盟友的关系都很紧张。这也意味着，他想控制自己挑起的贸易战会更加艰难，因为他现在是光杆司令，得不到确定的支持。此外，他只是以贸易逆差，以及对于“贸易公平”的含糊的担心为由来支持自己的行为，但并没有明确表明他想通过这些行为来实现怎样的结果，这本身也会限制他的行为。

　　To a larger extent, he is trapped by a certain nostalgia for a great age of manufacturing which will never return and, as sensible commentators point out, ended not because of trade with China, but as a result of technological change and automation. Trump’s view of economics and trade as a zero-sum game appeals to certain elements of the US populous, but the mounting costs of the trade war, and further and more severe consequences, may undermine even that base of support.

　　很大程度上，特朗普陷入了一种对美国过去制造业蓬勃发展的美好时代的怀恋，但这个时代不会逆历史趋势重现。正如一些明智的社评人员所说的那样，这个时代的终结不是因为与中国的贸易，而是因为科技的发展和自动化。特朗普认为经济和贸易是一场“零和”游戏的观点对于部分美国人确实有吸引力，但是贸易战带来成本攀升，以及接下来更严重的后果，可能会从根本上削弱这部分人对特朗普的支持。

　　Trump has enjoyed a sort of economic honeymoon in the first years of his presidency, though many longer-term indicators (well beyond the trade war) suggest that the US economy will face greater challenges in the near future. The massive tax cuts passed early in his administration served as a sort of stimulus for increased corporate profits and buoyed the stock market, but other persistent concerns – wage stagnation, healthcare costs, affordable housing, student loan debt, and the like, still remain.

　　特郎普刚上台的两三年里，美国经济确实有所改善，但是许多长期指标(超越暂时的贸易战)表明美国经济将会在不久的将来面临更大的挑战。特朗普上台之初大幅削减税收，确实刺激了美国企业利益的增长，使股市上浮，但是长期以来存在的问题如工资停滞、医疗成本、经济适用房、学生贷款债务等问题依然存在。

　　This fall, Congress will also need to pass a budget and increase the debt ceiling so that the US can continue to operate—yet there is little suggestion that an agreement will be reached easily. This could lead to another government shutdown and unsettle both bond and equities markets, with serious consequences throughout the economy.

　　今年秋季，美国国会需要再通过一个预算提案，提升债务的上限，以美国政府可以正常运行。不过，目前来看，这个提案没那么容易通过。这也可能导致美国政府再次关门，使证劵和股权市场再次动荡，严重影响美国经济。

　　Also, this fall will also present two further challenges for Trump’s economic policies.

　　今年秋季，特朗普政府的经济政策还将面临两大挑战。

　　First, the agricultural sector will be reckoning with losses (and trying to recoup subsidies from the government) because of its inability to sell to China. While not a major part of the overall US economy, farmers – and the midwestern states in which they live – have a hugely outsized political influence (as a result of the fact that seats in the powerful Senate, or upper house of Congress, are allocated by state and not by population).

　　首先，农业部将会计算自己的损失，并且试图从政府那里获得补贴，因为特朗普政府的政策限制了农产品出口中国。虽说农业在美国整体经济中的占比不大，但是农民，以及他们所在的中西部诸州对美国政治有非常大的影响，因为参议院的席位，也就是美国国会的上议院的席位，不是按照每个州的人数决定席位的，而是每个州都有固定的席位。

　　Worse, many of those farmers have also been hampered this season by excessive rain this spring, limiting their crops. When their debt comes due and they also must plan for next year’s growing season, considerable pressure will mount on the Trump administration to normalize markets.

　　此外，😔由于今年春季降雨过多，农作物产量受到影响，这也将加剧农民面临的困境。当他们需要还账，且需要为来年的耕种做准的时候，他们会向特朗普政府施加很大的压力，使贸易正常化。

　　Second, the Christmas holiday shopping season represents the largest outlay of consumer spending in the US, and this year, particularly if additional tariffs are enacted, Americans will face noticeably higher prices as manufacturers, importers and retailers cover their increased costs.

　　其次，圣诞节购物季是美国消费者集中消费较多的时候。今年，尤其是若关税再有额外增加的话，美国民众将会明显感受到物价上涨，因为制造商，进口商和零售商会提高售价，弥补成本的增加。

　　Trump has been trying to pressure the US Federal Reserve to lower interest rates to continue an economy followed by cheap borrowing, but even if they bow to his pressure (or respond to a weakening economy) they face a conundrum: first, they will be less equipped to deal with inflationary pressures caused by rising prices due to tariffs (as well and the potential on increased fuel costs if instability increases with Iran and other Gulf countries) on the one hand, and have less leeway for stimulating economic spending if a more severe downturn does materialize.

　　特朗普试图向美联储施压让其降息，以通过低息借贷继续刺激经济，但是即使美联储屈服于特朗普的压力，或者对经济下行作出反应，他们依然面临一个难题：一方面，额外的关税，伊朗以及其它海湾国家的局势不稳定可能导致的油价上涨，都会进一步导致物价上涨，若美联储现在降息，将无法有效地应对物价上涨带来的通货膨胀压力;另一方面，若更严重的经济下行出现的时候，利率上留出的刺激消费的余地也将会很少。

　　Which is all to say, more broadly, Trump faces a number of challenges, both foreign and domestic, well beyond relations with China. Given the poor track record the administration has when focused on any one of these issues, the possibility of having to juggle multiple of them has the potential to further exacerbate its ineffectual approaches.

　　也就是说，从更广泛的角度来看，特朗普面临着国内外一系列挑战，远不止是和中国的关系这一个方面。鉴于特朗普政府在集中处理某一个问题时的糟糕表现来看，他若想同时周旋处理这么多问题，只能会增加其失败的可能性。

　　Trump also will have to confront the challenges presented by his re-election bid in the next year, which will make him all the more vulnerable to a weakening economy. Of course, his ability to spark outrage will remain a constant theme, and such instability does not lead to an optimal environment for negotiation or strategic action.

　　此外，特朗普还需要面对明年再次参选所带来的挑战，目前美国疲软的经济也对他很不利。当然， 他可能会继续煽动部分民众的愤怒情绪，不过，这样的不稳定性对形成良好的谈判和战略决策环境无益。

　　Ideally, though, wiser and more sensible advice will be taken if mounting pressures force Trump to confront the costs of his economic policies, particularly with regards to tariffs – and this isn’t even considering measures China may take to stimulate changes in the US position.

　　比较理想的情况是，不断增加的内外部压力迫使特朗普直面他的经济政策(尤其是增加关税)所造成的损失，采取理性和明智的建议。不过，这个压力还没有算上中国政府在应对贸易战时所采取的措施给美国施加的压力。

　　I loathe to make specific predictions, but my overall view is that the consequences of Trump’s actions will begin to take a toll on the US, making the trade war a focus of greater domestic discontent, amplified by the frustrations of US corporations for whom China is an essential market.

　　我不喜欢对未来妄下断言，但是我的主要观点是特朗普的行为较后还是会由美国民众来买单，美国民众也会逐渐感受到这一点。特朗普挑起的贸易战会加剧美国民众的不满，以中国为主要市场的美国企业对特朗普政府的失望，更会加剧这种不满。

　　Now, what does all this mean for international education in China, and for students who are considering further studies in the US?

　　那么这样的形势对于中国的国际教育，尤其是考虑到美国留学的中国学生意味着什么呢?

　　Right now, I don’t sense any major shifts in the possibilities and opportunities available to students. While there have been stories about increased difficulties in securing visas, my sense is that these are far more the exception than the rule. And from every verifiable source I’ve heard, there has been no change to US policies – and by far, US college and universities have a great deal at stake if they faced challenges in recruiting end enrolling Chinese students.

　　目前，我并没有感觉到中国学生去美国留学的可能性和机会有什么大的改变。尽管有人说去美国留学的签证难拿到了，但我认为这只是个别事件，而不是规定和政策上有什么改变。我所了解的可靠消息来源都表明，美国留学签证政策并没有发生改变。此外，如果美国学院和大学在招收中国学生方面遇到阻碍，这些学校也会受到很大影响。

　　Whatever drop in interest may take place will be a challenge for many schools who have become structurally reliant on tuition dollars from overseas, and they will exert any and all possible pressure to keep international student enrollment at current levels.

　　无论是什么原因导致中国学生到美国留学的兴趣降低都会对美国的一些从结构上依赖留学生的学费的学校产生较大影响，这些学校会想办法，甚至是想尽办法一切办法向政府施加压力，使国际生的录取比率维持在现有水平。

　　If colleges and universities do face declining applications, they will work all the harder at recruitment, and one upside may be that they are more generous with admissions decisions in order to hedge any concerns about yield.

　　如果美国的学院和大学面临国际生申请人数下降的情况，他们会在招生方面更加努力。可能还会有个好处，他们会在决定是否录取时更加慷慨，以对冲录取人数不足的情况。

　　As importantly, despite perceptions about the political climate in the US, educational institutions value openness and diversity, and want to provide a welcoming and supportive home for their students. I’ve not heard or read of any concerns whatsoever for Chinese students in the US.

　　同样重要的是，不管大家如何看待美国的政治气候，美国的大学都非常重视开放性和多样性，致力于给学生们营造一个热烈欢迎的，提供支持的，像家一样的环境。我暂时还没有听到或者读到过当前中美形势会影响中国学生到美国留学的消息。

　　It’s also worth noting that the value of an international or English-language-based education remains extremely strong, regardless of any issues between the US and China—the value of a US diploma is not limited to any one national context. Further, the time horizon for education stretches well beyond what will hopefully be a one-year Trump presidency, or the current trade dispute.

　　值得一提的是，无论中美之间的问题如何，国际教育或者是以英语为主要语言的教育的价值依然很高，获得美国学位的价值并不会局限在美国这一个国家的范围里。另外，好的教育所带来的价值是终身的，时间跨度上会远远会超过特朗普剩下的或许是仅有的一年任期，也远远超过暂时的中美贸易争端。

　　Our own relationship with GIA remains as strong as ever, and they are fully committed to our partnership and to their operations in China.

　　我们与美国GIA的合作关系和往常一样十分紧密牢固，他们一直都在全力为我们提供支持，也在努力推进在中国的其它项目。

　　Considering all of this, I reflect on the sagely advice of an American who is quite astute when it comes to economic trends and the value of investment – Warren Buffet, whose advice I’ve always valued for my own decision making.

　　鉴于以上思考，我较后想分享一下美国智者沃伦巴菲特的建议，他在判断经济趋势和投资价值方面非常敏锐。 我在做决定时也经常会参考他的建议。

　　Buffet remarks “In short, bad news is an investor's best friend.” Current uncertainty is an advantage to those with determination and clear goals. As he continues: “Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful.”

　　巴菲特曾经说过：“简而言之，坏消息是投资者的朋友。”现在的不确定性对于有着清晰目标和坚定意志的人意味着机会和优势。他还说：“当别人都贪婪的时候你应该感到害怕，当别人感到害怕的时候你应该贪婪。

　　While I don’t exactly mean to endorse greed, I do mean to suggest that with pragmatic resolve, there are advantages to persevering with opportunities when others restrained by fear.

　　当然，我并不是说人要贪婪。我只是想说只要有务实的决心，当其他人受到恐惧的束缚时，你若坚持抓住机会是可以享有优势，占有先机的。

　　Even if things might get a bit more challenging before they get better, the pressures all nations face to ensure prosperity and stability sustained by an integrated global economy are much more likely to prevail.

　　即使情况在好转之前可能会面一些挑战，但所有国家都面临着繁荣与稳定的压力，而这种繁荣与稳定是由全球经济一体化所支撑的，这种一体化的繁荣和稳定也会赢得较后胜利。

　　Having students who are knowledgeable of and familiar with the world’s two largest economies will certainly create an opportunity for their great future success.

　　拥有了解和熟悉世界上较大的两个经济体的学生，肯定会为两个国家未来的巨大成功创造机会。留学交流是符合两国的共同利益的。